Financial Model¶
Companion spreadsheet: financial-model.xlsx — live, editable, with Assumptions / Unit Economics / Revenue Projections / Break-Even / Comps tabs. This doc is the narrative; the spreadsheet is the calculator.
Sourcing rule: figures marked (observed) came from live web research (Codex/gpt-5.5, 2026-07-07) with sources noted. Figures marked (assumption) are planning inputs we chose — change them freely in the spreadsheet.
1. Unit economics inputs¶
| Input | Conservative | Base | Aggressive | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free → paid conversion | 2% | 4–6% | 8–10% | Job search is urgent (helps), but churn is brutal (assumption, benchmarked to freemium norms) |
| Paid monthly churn | 18–25% | 12–18% | 8–12% | Users cancel when hired. Teal explicitly references this (observed reality) |
| Avg paid lifespan | 4 mo | 6–8 mo | 10–12 mo | Model as campaign-based, not evergreen SaaS |
| Prosumer CAC | $20–60 | $75–175 | $200–400 | Organic/community cheapest; paid search competitive (assumption) |
| B2B2C CAC (per org) | $1k–5k | $5k–20k | $20k+ | Coaches close fast; schools/workforce orgs slow (assumption) |
| Gross margin — BYOK/local | 85–93% | 88–91% | 92%+ | COGS is mostly sync + support + Stripe |
| Gross margin — managed AI | 65–85% | 75–82% | 85%+ | Depends on model mix, caps, caching |
LTV formula: LTV = ARPA × gross margin ÷ monthly churn
| At $19/mo, 90% GM | LTV | At $29/mo, 78% GM | LTV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% churn | $68 | 25% churn | $90 | |
| 18% churn | $95 | 18% churn | $126 | |
| 12% churn | $143 | 12% churn | $189 | |
| 8% churn | $214 | 8% churn | $283 |
Implication: paid CAC above ~$100 is hard for pure prosumer unless conversion is organic or prepaid. B2B seats are needed for durable payback.
2. Pricing benchmarks (observed, 2026)¶
| Product | Public pricing | Paid unlock |
|---|---|---|
| Teal / Teal+ | $13 / 7 days · $29 / 30 days · $79 / 90 days | Unlimited keyword matching, advanced resume analysis, AI bullets/summaries/cover letters |
| Simplify | Free (consumer) | Autofill, resume tailoring, tracking all free; no public paid self-serve price |
| Huntr | Free · Pro $40/mo · $90/qtr · $160/6mo | Unlimited tailored resumes, AI generations, advanced matching. Org/university/bootcamp = "Advisor," demo/contact-sales |
| LazyApply | $99 / $149 / $999 per year | 15 / 150 / 1500 applications per day (the volume play) |
| JobRight | Free / "Try for Free" | AI matching, autofill, tailored resume, referrals; no public paid price |
Sources: Teal, Huntr, LazyApply, Simplify, JobRight pricing pages (2026-07). WorkWingman prices below the volume players, at/under Teal — we win on trust, not discount.
3. Cost structure¶
| Cost line | BYOK/local | Managed proxy | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLM inference | $0 (user's key) | $1–6/paid user/mo (mini); $10–25+ (frontier) | OpenAI pricing; batch saves ~50% (observed) |
| Cloud sync/storage | $0.05–0.50/user/mo | same | Data is tiny; documents drive cost |
| Hosting/backend | $50–500/mo early → $1k–5k/mo at 100k | + queue/cache | Scales with sync + matching |
| Payment (Stripe) | ~2.9% + $0.30/txn | same | Stripe standard (observed) |
| Support | $1–3/paid user/mo | $2–5 if automation breaks | Job seekers are anxious; automation → tickets |
| Connector maintenance | 80–160 eng hrs/mo | same | 4–8 hrs/mo per ATS + incident spikes (assumption) |
| Verification vendor | Identity $4.99; employment/education from $12.50; packages $29.99–$94.99 | same | Checkr public pricing (observed) |
| Compliance/legal/security | $2k–10k/mo early | $5k–25k/mo with B2B/verification | Rises sharply with verification |
4. Revenue projections¶
Base assumptions: BYOK Plus $19/mo at 4% attach; Managed Pro $29/mo at 1.5% attach.
Prosumer only:
| Active users | Plus (4%) | Pro (1.5%) | MRR | ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000 | 40 | 15 | $1,195 | $14.3k |
| 10,000 | 400 | 150 | $11,950 | $143k |
| 100,000 | 4,000 | 1,500 | $119,500 | $1.43M |
With B2B2C seats layered on ($10–12/seat/mo):
| Scenario | Seats | Extra MRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10 small coaches/orgs | 500 | ~$6k |
| 50 schools/bootcamps/workforce orgs | 10,000 | ~$120k |
| 200 orgs | 50,000 | ~$500k–600k |
The lesson in one line: 50 institutional orgs (~$120k MRR) beats 100k prosumer users (~$120k MRR) — same revenue, far less churn and far cheaper to serve.
5. Break-even¶
Small-team fixed cost (assumption): $85k–120k/mo. Blended paid contribution ≈ $18.60/paid user (BYOK $19×90% and Managed $29×78%, at ~5.5% total attach).
| Fixed cost | Paid users needed | Prosumer active users needed (5.5% attach) |
|---|---|---|
| $85k/mo | ~4,570 | ~83,000 |
| $100k/mo | ~5,380 | ~98,000 |
| $120k/mo | ~6,450 | ~117,000 |
Takeaway: pure prosumer needs 80k–120k active users to sustain a small team. B2B2C makes it dramatically cleaner — ~5,000 paid org seats at $12/mo ≈ $60k MRR covers roughly half the burn with a fraction of the churn and support load.
6. Funding / outcome comps (observed)¶
| Company | Status |
|---|---|
| Simplify | YC W21; ~$1.2M raised (Craft + YC); 1M+ users, 100M+ applications. Free-core proof. |
| Teal | Active; investors incl. Lerer Hippeau, Aleph, Flybridge, Rethink Education; ~4M users; acquired Ramped (2026). B2C paywall proof. |
| Huntr | Active; strong B2B2C org motion (bootcamps, universities, workforce, outplacement, coaches). Institutional-wedge proof. |
| JobRight | Active; claims 2M users, 400k+ new jobs/day. |
| Sonara | Now inside the BOLD / Monster-CareerBuilder ecosystem. |
| Monster + CareerBuilder | Chapter 11, June 2025; job-board assets sold to BOLD for $28.4M. The old model is dying. |
7. How to read the spreadsheet¶
Three revenue engines, kept separate so you can stress each independently:
1. Prosumer: active × conversion × ARPA × GM, with churn-driven LTV.
2. B2B2C: orgs × seats/org × seat price × utilization.
3. Verification/staffing: event-based, excluded from core break-even until consent + compliance are proven.
For the pitch: lead with local-first trust + BYOK margin, then show convenience and B2B2C as the bridge from "useful tool" to "durable SaaS."
Plain-language mirror: ../business-plain/money-plan.md